Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve

The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom-up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves.

Published in: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, article in press
Available from: Wiley Online Library or see below